Money Line Prediction Results

The Money Line models predict the probability that the home team will win the game. The value of “1” represents a 100% chance the Home team wins and a value of “0” represents a 0% chance of winning (or a 100% chance the Away team wins). Among the 4 models, currently the GLM Tuned Model is the “in play” model.

Rather than using 50% as the threshold, a cutoff was identified for each model to maximize profit within the test data based on the predictions. The cutoffs are in the first table below. The performance of the model is evaluated in “units”, where a single unit represents a standard wager. A single unit is equal to 1.

Model variable importance can be found below results dashboard. There are different strategies that can be followed to make more efficient bets. 2 strategies that can be explored in the dashboard are “Underdog Bets” (only bet where the model picks the underdog) and “Same Pick Spread Line” (only bet where the “in play” money line model has the same pick as the “in play” spread line model.