Spread Line Prediction Results
The Spread Line models predict what the game "spread result" (home team score - away team score) will be.
A positive predicted result (p) estimates the home team will win by "p" points.
A negative predicted result (p) estimates the away team will win by "p" points.
Among the 4 models, currently the GLM Tuned Model is the “in play” model.
Predictions are made by comparing the predicted result to the spread line.
If the predicted result is larger than the spread line, the home team is picked.
If the predicted result is smaller than the spread line, the away team is picked.
The performance of the model is evaluated in “units”, where a single unit represents a standard wager.
A single unit is equal to 1.
Model variable importance can be found below results dashboard.
There are different strategies that can be followed to make more efficient bets.
2 strategies that can be explored in the dashboard are “Underdog Bets” (only bet where the model picks the underdog) and “Same Pick Spread Line” (only bet where the “in play” money line model has the same pick as the “in play” spread line model.
