NFL Betting Predictions

Current Predictions: 2021 Week 18

Last Updated: 03/06/22 10:48:39 PM
Next Week: Week 19 Picks


2021 Week 18 Money Line Predictions
Predictions show the estimated score of each team using XG-Boost/GLM/Random Forest Tuned Ensemble Model.
Home Pred-Pts EI ML Imp% Pred% Edge EV Open-Spread Pred-Spread Spread-Line Pred-EI Avg-EI Open-Total Pred-Total Total-Line Away Pred-Pts EI ML Imp% Pred% Edge EV SL-Edge
Saturday 04:30 PM 21.19 0.36 (435) (16.49%) (35.31%) 18.82% 88.89 -3.0 -4.85 -11.5 3.83 0.37 43.5 47.24 44.5 26.04 0.37 (-600) (83.51%) (64.69%) -18.82% -24.52
Saturday 08:15 PM 23.43 0.36 (165) (35.82%) (45.13%) 9.31% 19.6 -3.5 -1.61 -4.0 3.56 0.37 44.5 48.46 45.5 25.03 0.39 (-195) (64.18%) (54.87%) -9.31% -16.99
Sunday 01:00 PM 25.14 0.40 (-155) (59.12%) (64.9%) 5.79% 6.78 6.5 4.92 3.0 3.62 0.39 42.0 45.36 41.0 20.22 0.37 (135) (40.88%) (35.1%) -5.79% -17.52
Sunday 01:00 PM 22.84 0.39 (-265) (70.43%) (45.94%) -24.48% -36.72 1.5 -1.34 6.5 3.53 0.41 46.0 47.03 38.5 24.18 0.44 (215) (29.57%) (54.06%) 24.48% 70.27
Sunday 01:00 PM 18.77 0.36 (155) (37.46%) (29.83%) -7.63% -23.93 -11.0 -6.66 -3.5 3.88 0.37 46.5 44.2 45.0 25.43 0.39 (-180) (62.54%) (70.17%) 7.63% 9.15
Sunday 01:00 PM 17.72 0.38 (385) (18.31%) (30.6%) 12.29% 48.41 -10.0 -6.4 -10.5 3.77 0.39 44.0 41.85 43.0 24.13 0.40 (-525) (81.69%) (69.4%) -12.29% -17.38
Sunday 01:00 PM 19.35 0.36 (700) (10.33%) (30.62%) 20.28% 144.93 -8.5 -6.4 -14.0 3.78 0.38 44.5 45.09 43.0 25.74 0.39 (-1125) (89.67%) (69.38%) -20.28% -24.45
Sunday 01:00 PM 26.17 0.43 (-190) (63.53%) (69.04%) 5.51% 5.37 6.0 6.28 3.5 3.50 0.40 45.0 46.05 44.5 19.89 0.37 (160) (36.47%) (30.96%) -5.51% -19.5
Sunday 01:00 PM 19.63 0.39 (200) (31.82%) (41.27%) 9.45% 23.8 -4.0 -2.88 -6.0 3.89 0.40 41.0 42.15 36.0 22.51 0.41 (-230) (68.18%) (58.73%) -9.45% -15.73
Sunday 04:25 PM 26.25 0.39 (-235) (67.83%) (66.03%) -1.8% -5.87 5.0 5.29 5.5 3.64 0.41 46.5 47.21 48.0 20.96 0.42 (190) (32.17%) (33.97%) 1.8% -1.49
Sunday 04:25 PM 20.83 0.38 (186) (33.46%) (51.19%) 17.73% 46.41 -3.5 0.39 -4.5 3.55 0.39 42.0 41.26 40.0 20.43 0.39 (-213) (66.54%) (48.81%) -17.73% -28.28
Sunday 04:25 PM 27.36 0.39 (-1250) (90.41%) (80.92%) -9.49% -12.61 17.0 10.2 16.0 3.56 0.38 45.0 44.51 43.0 17.15 0.38 (750) (9.59%) (19.08%) 9.49% 62.19
Sunday 04:25 PM 25.73 0.39 (-170) (61.48%) (57.6%) -3.88% -8.52 6.5 2.51 3.0 3.62 0.39 44.5 48.95 46.5 23.22 0.40 (150) (38.52%) (42.4%) 3.88% 6
Sunday 04:25 PM 22.1 0.41 (200) (30.95%) (45.42%) 14.47% 36.27 -2.5 -1.51 -6.0 3.74 0.39 39.5 45.7 41.0 23.61 0.37 (-250) (69.05%) (54.58%) -14.47% -23.59
Sunday 04:25 PM 27.67 0.38 (-510) (81.28%) (75.95%) -5.33% -9.16 16.5 8.56 11.0 3.60 0.38 43.0 46.79 43.0 19.11 0.39 (375) (18.72%) (24.05%) 5.33% 14.25
Sunday 08:20 PM 23.67 0.41 (155) (37.46%) (44.95%) 7.48% 14.62 -2.5 -1.67 -3.5 3.86 0.43 47.5 49 48.0 25.34 0.45 (-180) (62.54%) (55.05%) -7.48% -14.37
Prediction Time: 01/09/2022 17:59:37
Bets based on where the predicted probability is greater than the implied probability. EI represents 'Excitement Index' and is used to indicate which games will be more exciting/volatile
Opening lines are based on initial data pulled at beginning of a new week.
Data: nflfastR + nflgamedata.com
Table: Joey Bloom @data_bears
Link: Predictions
Link: Matchups
Link: Plots
Link: EI Plots





Historical Model Prediction Results

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